As new COVID variant circulates, instances start to fall. Will it final?
COVID-19 instances proceed to fall all through the nation after a summer season wave peaked in early August, surveillance knowledge exhibits.
The proportion of constructive COVID-19 exams dropped from 17.8% the week of Aug. 10 to 14.9% the week of Sept. 7, in keeping with the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. Walgreens’s nationwide respiratory illness tracker confirmed an analogous development.
Summer season journey for holidays and gatherings sometimes drives a big wave of COVID-19 instances, mentioned Emily Smith, an infectious illnesses and epidemiology knowledgeable at GW Milken Institute of Public Well being.
However this summer season’s wave “was a very huge one,” she mentioned.
“It’s very onerous to check 12 months over 12 months as a result of the best way we monitor instances is totally different,” mentioned Smith, who can be an affiliate professor of world well being. “However each case numbers and wastewater (knowledge) … have left me feeling like this was in all probability one of many largest waves we’ve had.”
Free COVID exams are coming quicklyHow and when to get them organized
Though the nation seems to be driving a downward COVID-19 development, wastewater surveillance exhibits focus ranges of the virus stay excessive throughout the nation, in keeping with knowledge from WastewaterSCAN, a community run by Stanford and Emory College that displays sewage for indicators of illnesses.
“SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in 99.8% of samples over the past 21 days,” mentioned Amanda Bidwell, a WastewaterSCAN workforce member. “At present, the nationwide aggregated wastewater concentrations for (the virus) is barely larger than the place it was this time final 12 months.”
This summer season wave additionally peaked later in contrast with final 12 months, Smith mentioned. As a result of safety from prior an infection sometimes lasts about three months, a delayed summer season surge may additionally imply a later winter wave. Instances could begin to ramp up once more round December, she mentioned, relying on vaccination charges and circulating variants.
That offers extra time for People to arrange for the respiratory virus season by ordering free exams from COVIDtests.gov, which might be obtainable by the tip of the month, and getting the up to date vaccine. Pfizer-BioNTech’s and Moderna’s messenger-RNA vaccines goal the KP.2 variant, whereas Novavax’s protein-based shot targets the JN.1 lineage.
The JN lineage has nearly disappeared, accounting for .2% or much less of instances nationwide. As of Wednesday, CDC knowledge exhibits, KP.3.1.1 is probably the most dominant circulating variant, making up about 57% of instances. Public well being specialists are additionally monitoring the newly found XEC variant, a hybrid pressure of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 variants, which is steadily growing in Europe.
“We’re discovering instances within the U.S., and it’s rising at an analogous price over the (KP.3) variants,” Smith mentioned. “That may be the subsequent one to take off.”
Well being officers count on present therapies for COVID-19, together with the antiviral Paxlovid, and the up to date vaccine will proceed to guard individuals from the brand new variants.
It’s too early to know what number of People have gotten photographs for the reason that new vaccine was permitted by the Meals and Drug Administration in August. However a survey printed Wednesday by the Nationwide Basis for Infectious Ailments exhibits that lower than a 3rd of People say they may “positively get” an up to date shot this 12 months.
If the survey’s prediction proves true, it might be barely larger than final 12 months’s uptake. Solely 22.5% of adults and 14% of youngsters acquired the 2023-2024 up to date COVID-19 vaccine, in keeping with the American Medical Affiliation.
The brand new survey additionally discovered about 45% of People mentioned they might not get vaccinated and 16% mentioned they had been not sure. Solely half of People who’re at larger threat of COVID-related problems say they plan to get the up to date shot.
Amongst those that didn’t need to get vaccinated, the highest causes cited had been issues about unwanted effects and a basic lack of belief in vaccines.
“We’ve much more work to do as public well being professionals to make it simpler to get vaccinated and ensure individuals can recognize why this may very well be useful to them and their lives,” Smith mentioned.
Adrianna Rodriguez may be reached at adrodriguez@usatoday.com.
